While all eyes were on Hurricane Danny in the Atlantic Ocean, more tropical trouble was brewing for the U.S. in the form of Tropical Storm Kilo, on its way toward Hawaii and forecast to become at least a Category 2 hurricane next week.
Growing from a tropical depression that formed on Thursday afternoon, Tropical Storm Kilo was officially named by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center on Friday morning. While the storm doesn’t look very hurricane-like on satellite, the deep thunderstorm activity has grown in size and the circulation has strengthened — a trend that will continue into next week.
Sea surface temperatures south of Hawaii are extremely warm, as high as 86 degrees and running 4.5 degrees above average — fairly typical for this region during a strong El Nino year. Tropical Storm Kilo will capitalize on the warm water, using it as fuel to strengthen into a Category 2 hurricane with sustained winds of 100 mph after it turns north toward Hawaii late this weekend.
However, where exactly Kilo will track after it turns north is still uncertain.
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The storm’s current movement is dominated by a strong area of high pressure to the north, which is guiding the storm westward and keeping it south of Hawaii. Over the next two or three days, this high pressure is expected to erode, giving Kilo the opportunity to turn north and get picked up by upper-level winds that are blowing toward the east. This turn will bring the storm precariously close to at least the western islands — Ni’ihau and Kauai, and possibly Oahu, which includes the capital of Honolulu.
Most of the forecast models (below) suggest the center of Kilo will track west of the islands, along with the official forecast from the Hurricane Center, though a few models are forecasting a strong right turn, which would place Hawaii at risk next week. In either case it looks like then-Hurricane Kilo will bring a week of disturbed weather to the state, in the form of potentially gusty winds and heavy rainfall, especially for Ni’ihau and Kauai.
With the formation of Kilo, the central Pacific Ocean basin has set a new record for most tropical cyclones by Aug. 21, according to Colorado State’s Phil Klotzbach. Six tropical cyclones have formed so far in 2015, while the previous record was five, set and tied in the years 1982, 1994 and 2013.
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